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By Bradley Owen
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Thursday, September 22, 2005
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Winning at Monday Night Football
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The NFL has well and truly started with week 2 now behind us.
Not only is it the number 1 wagered pro sport in North America
but apart from the superbowl game itself, the next biggest betting
game in NFL, in terms of turnover of money, is the Monday Night
match up. You would think that the books with this one national
televised game each week would have their lines at their sharpest.
In theory that may be true but I will show you that ’over a
period of time’ you can win money wagering on this National
TV game, although I must emphasize that patience will be called
upon and not every week will a suitable wager be available.
I have found that the underdog, especially the home dog, has performed
better playing on Monday than it does on Sundays. The fact that the
nation are watching this one single game is more than enough incentive.
Going as far back as 1980, home dogs on Monday Night have gone 71-47
ATS (60%). Don’t for one minute think that this is still a solid
wagering opportunity as over the last 10 years you would have lost
money playing the spread on these home puppies. Since 1994, home dogs
are 24-24 ATS & 22-26 SU. No money to be made there wagering on
the spread, however, if you want to play the home underdog anytime
on a MNF game, play the moneyline as long term this has produced
over 16 units of profit.
Two other systems that support wagering on home dogs are;
Sub .400 win percentage Monday Night home dogs of +3.5 are 5-1 ATS
(83%) versus opponents with a .750 or greater win percentage
Monday night home dogs against opponent off a double-digit win
are 39-20 ATS (66%)
One area that should be exploited as much as possible are home teams
in non division contests. The following three systems should be referred
to on a regular basis as these throw up the most wagering opportunities
throughout the regular season.
Non division Monday night home teams off a SU win, are 21-1 SU and
16-5-1 ATS (76%) against opponents who allowed 30 or more points in
their previous game
Non division Monday night home teams off a SU win against an opponent
off a SU loss in their last game are 32-14 ATS (69%). This angle can
be improved if we ensure the road team is off a loss by 7 or more
points in their last game. This simple filter makes the home team
jump to an awesome 23-4 ATS (85%).
When the O/U line is 39 or more points, Monday night non division
home teams off a SU win are an awesome 23-0 ATS versus an opponent
off a double digit SU loss and lost by 3 points or more to the
spread in the double digit loss.
Before I throw out two angles for total backers I must pass on this
angle to you so you don’t fall into the same trap as Joe Public.
The sportsbooks are in the business to try and get even action on
both sides and totals, but I often believe traps are set by sportsbooks
to get early money as they are aware that the public like nothing more
than wagering on a team that won impressively the week before. With
that in mind, adhere to the following and you won’t fall in to
the same trap
Monday night road teams off a 7 or more point SU home win are
18-42 ATS the last 60 tries.
Finally, sportsbooks are aware that the public like nothing better
than non stop action and high scoring games. Look out for the
following
On Monday night, home teams off back-to-back road losses are 5-17 O/U
(77%) last 22 tries and if the posted total is 47 points or higher
the angle improves to 1-11 O/U (92%).
Clearly with a high posted total, the public immeadiatly think
it’s going to be a shoot-out. You’ve been warned!
Finally, Monday night division home teams coming off a SU loss
are 36-50 O/U (58%) since 1982. A small profit, but a profit none
the less. If we make sure the posted total is 41 points or
higher, the under improves to 32-13 (71%).
Now you can start to enjoy your MNF more by winning whilst watching.
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