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By Bradley Owen
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Thursday, December 1, 2005
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The Books Take A Beating
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Over the last few days I have had several telephone
conversations with some prominent people inside the sports
books and the one topic that the conversations always come
around to is how they are taking a beating in the NFL this
year. I laugh at first and say "you’re not the
only one".
See, I am a "public fader" the majority of the time
and like the sports books, I’m taking a beating this
season. I know from my many years of wagering on many kinds
of sports that these losing troughs happen. Some last a week,
a month, heck, even a whole season. I talk from experience
here and most cappers if they were truthful would say exactly
the same. What you must not do is become discouraged, believe
in your workings and know that OVER TIME, the losses will
become winners and the balance sheet will turn from red to
black.
So apart from ’Joe public’, who else is winning
in the NFL this season. Certainly those handicappers that
have winning performances this year are either following
the line movements during the week and play that way or
are playing favourites with great regularity. So in other
words, they are public players as the public are renowned
for playing favourites. There is absolutely nothing wrong
with that, each and every person has their own views and
opinions and that’s what makes sports and wagering
on them so exciting. But don’t let them tell you
they are dog players or fade public perception, because
if they were what they say, then they would be losing
this season in NFL.
So, lets look at the last week (week 12) in the NFL and
for those who were unfortunate to catch these bad breaks,
sorry for the reminder. Those that were fortunate to cash
their ticket, watch out as lightening very rarely strikes
twice.
It all started on Thanksgiving day, and certainly the
Cowboys (+2.5) were in a giving mood. First Drew Bledsoe
coughed up seven points to the Broncos when he threw an
interception for a touchdown in the first quarter. Then the
Cowboys had a chance to win the game but missed an easy
field goal mid-way through the fourth quarter which would
have put Dallas up by 3 points. Off to OT and Dayne breaks
through on a 55 yard run setting up the Broncos for an easy
field goal.
Then on Sunday all hell broke loose. Buffalo (+4) led the
Panthers by 3 points deep into the fourth quarter. Carolina
marched 68 yards for a touchdown and a four point lead with
less than 3 minutes of play remaining. Buffalo tried to
stage a comeback of their own but fell short when they were
intercepted.
Well, my Mother always told me when I was young lad that
bad things happen in three’s and how fitting were
those words for dog bettors. Washington were a 3.5 point dog
generally and with less than four minutes left on the game
clock, the Skins led by ten points (17-7). In those last
few minutes the Chargers managed to score 10 points. With
40 seconds left of regulation Washington came up short at
the Chargers 35 yard line as they failed to connect on a
3rd and 14 after committing a 10 yard penalty. Hall missed
the pursuing 52-yard field goal and so sending the game
into over-time. Well those that had the Redskins must have
been feeling awful to see a ten point lead disappear and
then a missed field goal, but knew that they were on the
right side and should still collect via the customary field
goal in OT. Wrong!!! After San Diego returned the kick off
for 22 yards, Brees passed to Gates for 24 yard and then LT
breaks through the line and scores a TD on a 41 yard run
Mum’s cant always be right as yet another early kick-off
game ends in a bad beat for the dog players. With one tick
under 3 minutes of regulation left, Houston kicked a field
goal to lead the Rams by 10 points. Eleven plays later after
a 14 yard kick off return and two 5 yard penalties by the Rams,
Fitzpatrick passed to Bruce for a 43 yard touchdown and Wilkins
made the PAT with 34 ticks left. An on-side kick recovered by
St Louis followed by an incomplete pass, a pass of 19 yards
and a Wilkins 47-yard field goal tied the game up at 27-27.
Houston gained first procession in OT but stalled after
making 27 yards and had to punt the ball. After committing a
10 yard penalty and starting at their own 10 yard line the
Rams on their sixth play completed a pass for 56 yard and a
touchdown.
Wow! that’s two overtime games and two games won by six
points. Losing one underdog lined by more than three points
in overtime is un-fortunate, but losing two in the space of
10 minutes, well words can’t express how cruel sports
wagering can be at times.
Wait, three hours later and dog bettors get one back as this
time the chalk players have to take one on the chin. Seattle
(-5.5) drive the ball 80 yards in just over six minutes and
take an 8 point fourth quarter lead with five minutes left.
Less than 3 minutes later Manning and the G-Men go 61 yards
for a TD and then add a 2 point play to tie the game up. The
Giants have a chance to win the game in regulation but Feely
miss’s a 40-yard field goal attempt. Relieve for the
chalk, frustration for dog. So as the game moves into overtime,
surely the dog cant be bitten again with another touchdown
like the two earlier games. Well as luck would have it, the
Seahawks and Brown kick a 36 yard field goal to win it after
Feely had missed twice in OT from 54 and 45 yards. I could
just hear the public moan "They couldn’t score a
touchdown like the others did in the early games".
Well, if history is anything to go by, the public were lucky
to come away 2-1 in those games that went to OT. Most weeks
it would have been an 0-3 day, but as I said, the PUBLIC
are winning this year.
Here’s a question to you all. How often in the last
16 years has a favourite of -3.5 points or more won a game
against the spread when the game has gone to overtime?
To save you the time researching I can tell you that it’s
just 12 times from 145 games during that span. That’s
a winning percentage of 91.7% for the dogs.
Twelve losses in 16 years and two happen on the same day.
The dogs certainly didn’t bark loud enough in week 12.
The odds for those two over-time games to both end with a
touchdown whilst having wagered on an underdog of +3.5 points
or more is +21609. Now that is one hell of a bad beat.
Whether you’re capping games or sticking a pin in a list
containing all the games for the weekend whilst blindfolded
(luck), it all evens out in the end. So next time you require
a back door cover or have the 3.5 points and it goes to
over-time, lets hope lady luck is riding with you.
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