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By Bradley Owen
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Saturday, May 7, 2005
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NBA Playoffs Second Round
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As Round One of the NBA playoffs draws to a close, let’s
prepare our selves for what could possibly be on deck in the
second round.
As with most knock out competitions where the loser goes home the
better teams usually rise. Of course there is always the upset
along the way, but as the competition goes deeper, the cream
usually rises.
I mentioned different class categories in the previous article and
clearly there should be more class ’A’ and
’B’ teams in the second round than any other class.
These teams have shown all season long that they are consistent,
have dominant home courts, able to win on the road, win tight
games, be efficient on offense and defense (with the odd
exception).
Only the Western Conference will be able to possibly match-up two
class ’A’ teams in round two this season. Be on the
look out for this particular series if it happens because it
will present you with an opportunity to play every game in
the series to finish "under" the posted total knowing
that the numbers are on your side.
In the last 10 years When two Class-A teams have matched-up from
Round 2 or later, the UNDER is 104-59. That alone is a 63.8% angle.
The best time to play this angle is in the early games (games 1
and 2) and late games (games 6 and 7) of the series as the winning
percentage drops off from game 3 onwards only to pick up later as
the defense intensifies. In game one of the series the UNDER is
24-10, that’s good enough for 70.59%. The UNDER is 27-13
UNDER in Games 6 & 7.
As you are aware, the team with the better regular season win
percentage has home court advantage in the series. Do the
line-makers have these better class home teams laying more
points (shading) in the spread. Well recent results would
indicate they don’t as home favourites of -11.5 or
less are 41-20 (67.2%) ATS when matched-up against a sub
.700 opponent in Game 1 of Round 2 or later. The line-maker
makes adjustments as the series progresses depending on
situations that are occurring but the numbers support
the fact clearly that these better teams step out in game
one and look to impose themselves and send out a message
of intent to their opponents in the series. Note though
that the above situation is an even stronger play when
the home team favourite has a win/loss percentage of
.700 or higher as these elite Class ’A’ teams
are 28-9 (75.67%) ATS.
I have heard it said that home court advantage has less bearing
on a basketball match as it would in football or ice hockey.
Well the stats don’t adhere to that statement. Before
you want to support the road team you better have very good
reason’s to as in Round Two of the playoffs last
season, Home teams regardless if favourite or an underdog
were 20-6 SU (77%) and 16-7-3 ATS (70%). Now who says home
court isn’t advantageous!
Those that followed the angles blindly in my first article
"NBA Winning Anglesquot; made a tidy profit. Here is
just one of those angles that you should file away until next
post-season.
"teams seeded 1, 2 & 3 either at home or on the road"
went 19-9-3 (67.8%) this post-season with only Boston on
Saturday as the last play outstanding this season. That’s
on the back of 19-7-1 ATS (74%) in 2004.
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