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LT’s Sportsbeat
By Guido Carapellucci
LT Profits Sports Group
Thursday, June 14, 2007
MLB 2007: Year of the Road Favorite?
If you are a value player in Major League Baseball that plays primarily underdogs, and you feel that the going has been tougher than usual this season, well you are correct! This is especially true if you, like many others, prefer to bet home underdogs.
More on road favorites later, but for now, let us begin our discussion with the entire population of favorites. The following chart shows the performance of all favorites so far this season in specific price ranges, including all games through Tuesday, June 12:
|
ALL Favorites
|
W
|
L
|
Pct
|
Units
|
|
-106 to -119
|
122
|
104
|
54.0%
|
5.81
|
|
-120 to -129
|
79
|
53
|
59.8%
|
12.92
|
|
-130 to -139
|
89
|
59
|
60.1%
|
9.41
|
|
-140 to -149
|
63
|
49
|
56.3%
|
-7.81
|
|
-150 to -159
|
46
|
36
|
56.1%
|
-9.34
|
|
-160 to -179
|
64
|
46
|
58.2%
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-13.63
|
|
-180 to -199
|
31
|
10
|
75.6%
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12.35
|
|
-200 to -249
|
34
|
22
|
60.7%
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-13.57
|
|
-250 to -299
|
5
|
3
|
62.5%
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-2.94
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-300 to -399
|
2
|
1
|
66.7%
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-1.16
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|
-400+
|
0
|
1
|
0.0%
|
-4.15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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All Favorites
|
535
|
384
|
58.2%
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-12.11
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Blindly betting all favorites so far would have netted a small loss of -12.11 units, which is like a moral victory compared to past years. What is interesting however is that all favorites of less than -140 are indeed showing a profit so far, as teams that are between -106 and -139 are 290-216, 57.3 percent for +28.14 units! That translates to a half-decent ROI of 5.6 percent.
What is really revealing however as what happens when we break these numbers out between Home Favorites and Road Favorites. Consider the following:
|
Home Favorites
|
W
|
L
|
Pct
|
Units
|
|
-106 to -119
|
70
|
56
|
55.6%
|
7.12
|
|
-120 to -129
|
38
|
36
|
51.4%
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-6.95
|
|
-130 to -139
|
61
|
43
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58.7%
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2.94
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|
-140 to -149
|
48
|
36
|
57.1%
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-4.09
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-150 to -159
|
34
|
25
|
57.6%
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-4.49
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-160 to -179
|
50
|
40
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55.6%
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-17.55
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-180 to -199
|
30
|
7
|
81.1%
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16.80
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-200 to -249
|
31
|
21
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59.6%
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-14.53
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-250 to -299
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5
|
3
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62.5%
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-2.94
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-300 to -399
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2
|
1
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66.7%
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-1.16
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|
-400+
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0
|
1
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0.0%
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-4.15
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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All Home Favorites
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369
|
269
|
57.8%
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-29.00
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|
Road Favorites
|
W
|
L
|
Pct
|
Units
|
|
-106 to -119
|
52
|
48
|
52.0%
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-1.31
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|
-120 to -129
|
41
|
17
|
70.7%
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19.87
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|
-130 to -139
|
28
|
16
|
63.6%
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6.47
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|
-140 to -149
|
15
|
13
|
53.6%
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-3.72
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|
-150 to -159
|
12
|
11
|
52.2%
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-4.85
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|
-160 to -179
|
14
|
6
|
70.0%
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3.92
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-180 to -199
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1
|
3
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25.0%
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-4.45
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-200+
|
3
|
1
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75.0%
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0.96
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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All Road Favorites
|
166
|
115
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59.1%
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16.89
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As you can see, blindly betting all road favorites in 2007 has actually produced a profit of +16.89 units, while home favorites have performed as in past years, losing 29 units thus far. The interesting subset for home chalk so far has been the -180 to -199 category, where the teams are an incredible 30-7 for +16.80 units! However, that is by far the best performing range for favorites of -140 or greater, and with a limited sample size of 37 games, it is probably just an anomaly.
Road favorites have been amazing however, much to the chagrin of home underdog players that have been so successful in the past. Note the performance of road favorites between -120 and -129, as these clubs are 41-17 for +19.87. If we again draw the line at -140 and only bet road chalk up to -139, road favorites are 121-81, 59.9 percent, +25.03 units so far for an exceptional ROI of 12.4 percent!
We further broke out the favorites by league, again with interesting results:
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Favorites by League
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W
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L
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Pct
|
Units
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American League Faves
|
266
|
169
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61.1%
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17.97
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National League Faves
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269
|
215
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55.6%
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-30.08
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National League favorites have been par for the course when compared to past years, but American League favorites have broken the bank to this point. Furthermore, if we use the seemingly magical cut-off point of -140, AL favorites up to -139 are 134-87 for a terrific +28.84 units, translating to an ROI of 13.0 percent.
Finally, here are the top three performing teams as favorites so far this season:
|
Teams as Favorites
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W
|
L
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Pct
|
Units
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Boston
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35
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13
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72.9%
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15.21
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Arizona
|
24
|
8
|
75.0%
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13.33
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LA Angels
|
30
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13
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69.8%
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10.04
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The Red Sox have been a consistent favorite across all areas, while the Diamondbacks are an amazing 11-1 as a road favorite and the Angels are 15-4 for +9.88 units when favored by less than -140.
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