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By Bradley Owen
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Monday, October 10, 2005
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Keeping Abreast Of Developing Trends
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In the ever changing world of sports, as a capper, you must become aware
as early as possible of new developing trends that will help you in your
endevours to beat the line each and every week. This goes hand in hand
with keeping abreast of old trends as over time these trends / angles
will eventually revert to around the .500 mark.
Before I get into new developments, I will take a look at two much
talked about angles in the NFL, namely, how teams do off the "bye
week" and the domination of the AFC over the NFC in the NFL.
OFF THE BYE
After this past weekend, NFL clubs playing with rest are 10-10 ATS.
After starting out 4-0 ATS in week 4 (first week as bye’s started
in week 3), these rested teams have performed 2-2 ATS in week 5, 2-2
ATS in week 6, 1-3 ATS in week 7 and 1-3 ATS in week 8.
Prior to this season teams playing the week after their "bye"
had performed poorly, going just 26-46 ATS for a loss of 24.6 units.
For those that don’t want to do the simple maths, as of today
it’s now 36-56 (39.1%) ATS. Looking further into teams off a
"bye" and how best to fade them I note;
1. By playing against home teams who are off their "bye
week" vs. opponent who is not off a "bye week",
the losing continues with a loss of 18.7 units and a 11-27
ATS (28.9%) angle.
2. Play against home favourites or dogs of +2 or less off a
"bye" and a straight up loss in their last game before
their "bye week". 21-42-2 ATS (33.3%) since 1994.
(i) If rested home team is against a foe thats off a home game,
15-29-2 ATS (34.1%).
3. Play against any home favourite off a "bye" that
lost by 7 or more points on the road the week before their "bye
week". 9-24 ATS (27.3%).
4. Play on home dogs of 6 or more points off a "bye
week" vs. a team that played last week, 16-2-1 ATS.
AFC vs. NFC
Since the start of the 2004 season, the AFC has dominated the
NFC, going 61-38 ATS. That’s a winning angle of 61.6% and
19.2 units of profit. Digging a little deeper, AFC teams who
are underdogs versus NFC foe have gone a very respectable 27-15
ATS, 64.3% and 10.5 units of profit. Taking AFC teams when
playing on the road against the NFC would have produced a 30-19
ATS (61.2%) record and if keeping the AFC team on the road and
their host from the NFC is off a straight up loss, these dominant
conference guests are 20-8 (71.4%) ATS.
Moving on to trends developing in 2005 for both pro and college
pigskin, I will throw these ones out at you;
NFL
1. Teams are 6-16 ATS in 2005 after winning SU as a Dog. If playing
against a opponent who comes in off a SU loss these teams who pulled
the upset last week are a woeful 1-7 ATS including 0-5 ATS if in a
division game.
2. Teams who won by 10 or more points in their last game are 7-16
ATS in October 2005.
3. Teams playing off BB SU losses are 19-8 ATS thus far in 2005.
Splitting this into further parameters within the game we get the
following. (remember though that in all the following parameters
the play on team must being playing off back-to-back straight
up losses)
(a) playing non-division games, 13-4 ATS.
(b) off a loss by 10 or more points, 8-2 ATS.
(c) off BB ATS losses, 13-4 ATS.
(d) versus foe who is .500 > on the season, 11-3 ATS.
(e) playing at home, 13-3 ATS.
(i) as a home fav 12-1 ATS.
(ii) home fav off BB SU ATS losses, 10-0 ATS.
(f) teams off BB SU losses as favourites are 15-2 ATS including
11-1 ATS if off a SU ATS loss.
4. NFL home teams off a SU loss of 3 or less points, 14-6 ATS.
(i) versus foe off SU win, 9-1 ATS.
NCAAF
1. CFB home teams who are favs coming off a conference game versus
opponent off a SU fav loss are 2-14 ATS in 2005.
2. CFB home teams playing off a SU fav loss and with revenge are
2-11 ATS including 1-8 ATS as favs and 1-9 ATS off a conference game in 2005.
3. CFB road teams playing off an upset DD SU conference win as an
underdog are 10-4-1 ATS and 8-3 ATS versus conference foes in 2005.
4. Playing on underdogs off BB SU wins vs. foe off BB SU wins, the
underdog is 22-9 ATS including 17-5 ATS when taking 4 or more points in 2005.
(i) If coming in off a conference game the dog improves to 12-1
ATS including 9-1 ATS off DD ATS win.
5. Sun Belt conference favs off a conference game vs. a foe
off a SU fav loss are 1-7 ATS in 2005.
6. Big 10 favourites against teams off a SU dog win are 1-5
ATS whilst Underdogs off a SU DD win are 5-1 ATS.
7. Big 12 teams off a SU DD loss are 11-4 ATS in 2005. Inside
that number is, 10-2 ATS off SU + ATS DD loss and 9-0 ATS as favs.
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