March 26, 2006

This is the third part of covering this years NCAA Tournament. Unless stated, all trends and angles are from 1987 when shots from 21 feet started counting for three points.

Since 1987, there has been a total of 57 Final Four and Championship games played with the favourites holding a 36-21 straight up advantage, yet it’s the underdogs that have had most success at the windows going 30-27 ATS. In the championship game itself, the favourites have cut down the nets 15 of 19 times and covered the number 11 times. The favourite has certainly had it’s way in the Championship game, having recorded a 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS record in the last 16 years..

Breaking down the favourites into three price groups has produced the following results;

- Favourites of 6.5 points or more are 10-7 SU and 4-13 ATS

- Favourites of 4 - 6 points are 13-5 SU and 13-5 ATS

- Favourites of 3.5 points or less are 13-9 SU and 10-12 ATS.

Until this year and George Mason, no seed lower than #8 has been to the final four in the past 17 seasons. Here’s a breakdown of how seeds have performed.

Seed # ATS Record (SU Mark)

#1’s: 25-22 (28-19)

#2’s: 10-14 (11-13)

#3’s: 11-7 (9-9)

#4’s: 5-5 (3-7)

#5’s: 3-5 (2-6)

#6’s: 3-2 (3-2)

#8’s: 0-2 (0-2)

An area that has been exploited in the past thanks mainly to the Public’s perception has been the total. Over the last 19 years there has been 57 games played over the final weekend. For the record there has been 32 UNDERS, 24 OVERS, and 1 PUSH. Note that the UNDER is 22-14 when the total posted is greater than 150 points.

NCAA Final Four Round Notes:

- # 2 Seeds are 3-9 ATS.

- # 3 Seeds are 6-2 ATS.

- Teams entering the Final Four off their largest straight up win are 14-10-1 ATS.

- Teams who won by 20 > points in Sweet 16 round are 0-6 ATS in this round.

- Teams who are 3-0 ATS last three games are 5-17 ATS since 1993, including 1-11 ATS off a win of nine or more points

- Teams who scored 80 > points in Elite 8 Round are 8-16 ATS in this round, including 1-8 ATS as favourite the last nine years.

- Teams off SU dog win are 6-11 ATS.

- Teams with revenge are 1-6 ATS.

- Teams in this round who covered the pointspread in each of the first four NCAA tournament games are 5-15 ATS.

NCAA Championship Game Notes:

- # 1 Seeds are 9-3 straight up.

- # 5 or worse Seeds are 0-3 straight up and ATS.

- Teams with a winning percentage of .810 or less are 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS.

- Only two eventual National Champions did not finish either #1 or tied for #1 in their conference since 1989.

- Teams in the Championship Game off their largest straight up win are 8-5 ATS.

- Favourites of 6 or less points are 6-1 ATS.

- Teams who covered their last game by 14 > points are 1-4 SU and ATS.

- Teams in NCAA title games who allowed 58 < points in their Final Four game are 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS.

- #1 seeds who allowed fewer points than their opponent in their Final Four game are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS since 1993.

- The team with the higher win percentage on the season is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in title games since 2000.

- Teams in the NCAA title game that have both surrendered the fewest points and scored the most points between the two teams during their run to the Championship game are 13-1 ATS.

Why not join me this Saturday for my 3 Game Final Four package that includes my Game of the Year and a "best" bet (18-7 in BEST BETS in tournament play this year).