March 23, 2006

Let’s start with a fact; "The higher seed’s take over the Tournament after the first two rounds have been played." From a standpoint of who progresses, that is true. Higher seed’s are 128-59 SU in round three or later. But, as far as we are concerned, it’s all about point-spread win’s. So, although higher seeded team’s are 128-59 SU they are a losing 89-94 ATS.

If you follow this trial, hopefully, you can put money in your pocket’s by playing against the myth.

Let’s start with the following; Play against any higher seeded team in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight Rounds. That basic angle is 72-80 ATS.

Now, if the higher seeded team come’s in off spread cover’s in both the first and second round, these higher seeded team’s fall further to a 26-39 ATS mark. That’s a 60% play against situation and one that plenty of professional’s would be welcome with.

Knowing that a 60% winning percentage is not good enough for you reader’s of this article, let’s look to improve upon it.

If the higher seeded team covered the number by 10 or more point’s in their last game, they crumble to 8-21 ATS, a wallet breaking 72.4% play against.


I have one more tightener to really make this situational angle pop. In those 29 game’s, the higher seeded team’s playing an opponent with a greater than .740 WL% are a shattering 4-14 ATS. That’s a solid 77.8% play against.

So there you have it, Playing AGAINST any team in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight Rounds of the NCAA Tournament if it is a higher seed and enters off back-to-back ATS wins and covered their last game by 10 or more points and their opponent has a greater than .740 win/loss percentage are 14-4 ATS.

Wichita State fit all the parameter’s so George Mason is the play.