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By Bradley Owen
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Monday, August 8, 2005
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Betting NFL Pre-Season
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When considering action in the preseason be wary of your bankroll as it
just might disappear quicker than a Cambodian with a luncheon voucher.
The following I hope, will guide you to increasing your bankroll.
My golden rules are; "If your bankroll is limited then play any contest
for a limited amount. Do not go beyond your percentage unit of bankroll. You
must remain disciplined at all times." And finally; "remember,
don’t forget to factor in that teams will go for a 2 point play
rather than kick the extra point to force overtime."
As a guide, the following teams have proved profitable in the
situations noted.
Play ON Atlanta vs. Jacksonville on August 25th and OVER (9-2) if fav
in any pre-season game.
Play Baltimore UNDER in week 3 (2-9 O/U) of the pre-season and
AGAINST if fav of 4> points (1-7 ATS).
Play AGAINST Buffalo in week1 (5-18 ATS) of the pre-season
Play ON Carolina in week 1 (5-1 ATS) and as an underdog (16-9 ATS).
Play Chicago UNDER in week 1 & week 2 (1-10 O/U combined) of the pre-season
and ON in week 2 (6-1 ATS) and AGAINST in weeks 3 + 4 (2-16 ATS combinded).
Play AGAINST Cincinnati in their first and third games of the pre-season.
Play AGAINST Dallas in their first game (3-17 ATS) of the pre-season and
OVER in week 4 (8-1 O/U).
Play ON Denver in week 1 (20-5 ATS) and the UNDER in week 2 (1-10 O/U) of
the pre-season.
Play ON Detroit in their first pre-season game and AGAINST in week 3.
Play Green Bay UNDER (except week 2) in the pre-season and AGAINST in week 4 (1-8 ATS).
Play ON Indianapolis in week 3 of the pre-season.
Play Jacksonville UNDER in pre-season games and AGAINST at home (2-8 ATS).
Play AGAINST Kansas City in first 3 weeks of the pre-season.
Play ON Minnesota in week 4 (16-4 ATS) in the pre-season.
Play New England UNDER in pre-season games and play ON the Patriots as a
home favourite (13-5ATS) and in week 1 (6-0 ATS) and week 2 (9-2 ATS).
Play ON New Orleans in week 2 (10-3 ATS) and OVER in weeks 1, 3 & 4 of the pre-season.
Play AGAINST New York Giants off a SU win (1-11 ATS).
Play ON New York Jets in week 3 & 4 (20-3 ATS combinded) in the pre-season.
Play AGAINST Oakland in week 2 & week 3 (5-18 ATS combinded) of the pre-season.
Play AGAINST Philadelphia in week 1 (2-11-1 ATS) and week 4 (3-12 ATS) of the pre-season.
Play Pittsburgh OVER in week 1 and week 2 of the pre-season.
Play St Louis UNDER in pre-season games and AGAINST in week 3.
Play ON San Diego in week 3 (7-1 ATS) and OVER in pre-season games.
Play AGAINST San Francisco in pre-season games accept for week 2.
Play ON Seattle in week 3 (18-3 ATS) and AGAINST in week 4 (0-5 ATS) of the pre-season.
Play ON Tennessee as a road dog if opponent is off SU & ATS win (10-1 ATS).
Looking at head coaches also present some solid plays on and against.
Don’t be fooled into thinking that these head coaches don’t
have much of a role to play, your wallet won’t thank you for that
train of thought. Like most things in life, coaches are creatures of
habit and they use these preseason games as dress re-hearsals year
in and year out and with varying degrees of how important it is to
win, or have I seen enough from my main guys.
Top of any list should be Bill Parcells who clearly uses the pre-season to
install a winning attitude in his teams. Over the last five seasons that
Parcells has coached a team they have covered at a clip over 67% ATS. Of
course Dallas only went 2-2 ATS last preseason because the public have to
now bet into inflated lines as the sportsbooks know all about Parcells
winning attitude.
It must be said though that any coach could win just about any preseason
game they wished by using various elements of the game. Just a few examples
would be keeping the known starters to be used in the regular season on
the field of play for longer. Putting back in key players in situations
like the defensive line on a third and long or a third and goal on the
two yard line. And more importantly, motivation which comes in different
disguises. Some coaches use it to evaluate players whilst others try and
establish a winning attitude. But clearly their number one priority is
not to get players injured. This is why you may just see a different
motavation from the Carolina Panthers in preseason from recent years as
they started last year off with half a dozen first choice players
sidelined. Clearly new coaches like to make statements and establish
themselves. Spurrier back in 2002 who wanted to show all his offensive
wears as his Redskins lit up the scorebaord for a total of 152 points in
four games. Coaches who are in charge of a new team for the first time
went 23-13 ATS in the two years of 2002 and 03.
My first place to look as the pre-season approaches are teams that
finished poorly last season and or had losing seasons. One of their
main aims is to put fans bums on seats and their’s no better way at
doing that than win games in the pre-season.
As with the teams above lets have a look at coaches that offer up a
significant edge be it winning or losing in preseason football.
Billick (Baltimore) 13-5-1 ATS versus NFC foe (6-0-1 at home in this
role) and 7-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points.
Coughlin (NY Giants) 4 – 12 ATS since 2000.
Capers (Houston) 5 – 15 – 1 ATS last 5 years.
Del Rio (Jacksonville) 0-4 O/U on the road.
Edwards (NY Jets) 12 – 5 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a dog.
Fisher (Tennessee) 7-1 ATS at home since 2000.
Fox (Carolina) 9 - 2 - 1 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a dog.
Martz (St Louis) 8 – 13 ATS.
Mularky (Buffalo) 3-1 ATS.
Parcells (Dallas) 45 - 22 - 2 ATS, 23-3 ATS as a pre-season
favourite of -5 or less points, 26-10 ATS as a favourite,
19-6 ATS at home and 18-3 SU & ATS against teams off a home
pre-season game, including 15-1 ATS if a favourite of 5
points or less.
Shanahan (Denver) 8-1 ATS off a SU loss.
Next week I will look at some pre-season angles and trends that
will come into affect after the teams have played several games.
Until then, look closely for your opportunities and I will leave
you with these trends.
Many seasoned pro cappers continue to call out the trend, Play on
a team in its second pre-season game if its opponent is playing
its first. This may well have been the case when Noah had his
ark (53-34-8 ATS since 1983), but over the last five seasons this
trend has won less than 50% of the time. You have been warned.
Playing on all pre-season underdogs of +4.5 points or more has
produced a record of 36-16 ATS for a 69.2% success rate. Play on all
pre-season dogs of 7.5 points or more versus a team off a SU win.
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